Tag Archive for 'Portland Cement Association (PCA)'

2019 Will Be …

By Greg Sitek

Prospects for the coming year are positive. Inertia alone should keep the economy going and growing. So much has been put in motion that most of the influencing factors have not yet had a chance to take effect.

According to the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation A strong labor market and healthy consumer spending are positive factors, “Indeed, preliminary estimates of consumer spending on Black Friday and Cyber Monday reveal that online spending was up nearly 20% from last year, setting a record that underscores the current sentiment of U.S. consumers. Overall, recent data suggest that consumer spending should continue to drive economic growth in 2019.” The Foundation also points out that there are factors that have the potential of causing problems, most notably increased trade pressures and tightening of global credit.  You can find more of what the Foundation and other leading industry organizations predict for 2019 in the national section of this issue.

There are numerous organizations that have published forecast and other that will be published after the New Year has started. We will keep you informed on these as they become available.  Meanwhile here are glimpses into what a couple leading industry associations are forecasting.

ABC

Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu forecasts another strong year for construction sector performance, yet warns about inflationary pressures.

Job growth, high backlog, and healthy infrastructure investment all spell good news for the industry. However, historically low unemployment has created a construction workforce shortage of an estimated 500,000 positions, which is leading to increased compensation costs.

“U.S. economic performance has been brilliant of late. Sure, there has been a considerable volume of negativity regarding the propriety of tariffs, shifting immigration policy, etc., but the headline statistics make it clear that domestic economic performance is solid,” said Basu. “Nowhere is this more evident than the U.S. labor market. As of July, there were a record-setting 6.94 million job openings in the United States, and construction unemployment reached a low of 3.6 percent in October.”

While the U.S. economy is thriving, Basu cited the potential long-term impact of rising interest rates and materials prices—up 7.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October—on the U.S. construction market. In addition, the workforce shortage will continue to influence the market in the coming year.

That said, Basu stressed that a recession is unlikely in 2019, even with recent financial market volatility. Indicators such as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which often signals an economic downturn, have continued to tick higher, implying current momentum will continue for at least two to three more quarters.

While optimistic for next year, Basu warned that “Contractors should be aware that recessions often follow within two years of peak confidence. The average contractor is likely to be quite busy in 2019, but beyond that, the outlook is quite murky.”

https://www.abc.org/News-Media/Newsline/entryid/15940/abc-predicts-construction-sector-will-remain-strong-in-2019

PCA Forecasts Less Growth in 2019 and 2020

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) Market Intelligence Group forecast for cement consumption over the next two years, shows less growth compared with 2018. This year’s rate of change is 2.9 percent. Growth ebbs to 2.6 percent in 2019 and to 1.6 percent in 2020.

“We are expecting relatively modest but sustained interest rate increases after 10 years of low and stable rates,” said PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. “The Federal Reserve’s actions will gradually slow the construction sector’s growth due to, among other things, the higher mortgage rates for residential buildings and higher borrowing cost for nonresidential buildings.”

Sullivan added, “While the tax cuts passed at the end of 2017 have helped to boost the overall economy, the rising debt will frame the discussion of future federal public infrastructure spending.”

PCA’s overall projection for the U.S. economy suggests considerable strength that will take time to unravel. The seeds of a gradual softening will arise from rising interest rates, the emergence of fiscal difficulties at the state level at a time of relative prosperity, and the aging of the recovery. PCA forecasts the GDP growth rate to be 3.1 percent this year, 2.7 percent in 2019 and 2.2 percent in 2020. The unemployment rate now below 4 percent, is expected to trend down – intensifying labor shortages and leading to stronger wage gains.

“America’s economy is unquestionably strong and resilient,” said Sullivan. “The real GDP growth is healthy, wage growth is up, and both the unemployment rate and consumer household debt are at near record lows. While interest rates are rising, they have not reached a threshold that would cause a significant adjustment to the positive overall growth projections.” https://www.cement.org/newsroom/2018/11/15/pca-forecasts-less-growth-in-2019-and-2020

Have a happy and prosperous New Year.

PCA REPORT: SPRING CEMENT OUTLOOK

Spring Cement Outlook1Spring Cement Outlook2

PCA: All 50 States Expected to Experience Housing Recovery in 2013

PCA Logop2013 Housing Starts Approach the One Million Mark

Since 2005, tepid economic growth and high foreclosure rates have depressed home prices, bloating inventories and preventing start activity. In 2013, economists are revising nearly a decade of pessimism and forecasting growth throughout the residential construction industry.

A new report from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) projects total housing starts to reach 954,000 units in 2013, reflecting further improvement on 2012’s nearly 30 percent growth.

“The possibility of one million starts in 2013 should not be dismissed,” PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan said. “Although the first half 2013 will be mired in a fiscal cliff hangover, we are decidedly optimistic about second half economic growth, job creation and consumer sentiment – all of which translate into a stronger home sales and starts activity.”

Even stronger growth in homebuilding is predicted to materialize in 2014 with starts surpassing 1.1 million.

In another optimistic turn from previous residential forecasts, PCA expects the recovery to be broad-based and is projecting all 50 states will see increases in single family housing this year. Already underway in the interior U.S., the emergence of accelerating construction growth has begun to appear in some the hardest hit states during the housing bubble burst. These regions are now likely to lead growth in coming years as the long depressed markets begin to return to housing construction rates consistent with their demographics.

“As the recovery unfolds, regions that once lagged recovery now begin to emerge as growth leaders. The Southwest and Southeast, for example, still have the weakest housing fundamentals on a relative basis to the Interior U.S, but on a construction activity basis, given the extremely depressed bases from which these regions are recovering from, they will likely be the housing growth leaders in coming years,” Sullivan said.

PCA expects multifamily construction to continue to grow at a strong pace as favorable fundamentals fuel the sector. Multifamily starts recorded a 55 percent gain in 2011 and 36 percent growth in 2012. PCA expects an additional growth of 15 percent in 2013 to 277,000 units. Damaged credit due to foreclosure activity and tight mortgage lending standards have combined to create robust apartment demand.

About PCA
The Portland Cement Association represents cement companies in the United States and Canada. It conducts market development, engineering, research, education, and public affairs programs. More information on PCA programs is available at www.cement.org.

Hundreds Rally in Washington D.C. to Support Transportation Funding

15 Transportation Construction Industry Associations Rally to Make Transportation Job #1

Leading bipartisan Members of Congress joined hundreds of members of the transportation construction industry and its suppliers in Washington D.C. Tuesday to support the passage of a multi-year, fully funded transportation bill. The second annual RALLY for ROADS brings attention to the impact transportation and highway investment has on our nation’s economy.

“America’s infrastructure is vital to economic growth and job creation,” said Kerri Leininger, a RALLY for ROADS spokesperson and the Senior Vice President of Government and Political Affairs for the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association. “America’s transportation needs are too great, and its impact on the nation’s economic health and well-being are too substantial to delay passage of a surface transportation bill any longer.”

RALLY for ROADS is a bipartisan rally sponsored by 15 national transportation construction associations. Ten members of congress participated in the event including Chairman for the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Rep. John Mica (R-FL) and Democratic Chief Deputy Whip, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA). Representatives from all facets of the road construction, manufacturing, services, retail, agriculture and natural resources industries will join together to support the rally.

“Deficiencies in America’s surface transportation systems have cost households and businesses billions of dollars,” said Leininger. “Our livelihoods depend on America’s roads. The support for RALLY for ROADS from congressional and industry members highlights the importance of getting our nation’s infrastructure back on track.”

“RALLY for ROADS” is sponsored by the American Concrete Pavement Association (ACPA), Associated Equipment Distributors (AED), Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), American Highway Users Alliance (AHUA), American Road and Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA), American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), American Traffic Safety Services Association (ATSSA), Concrete Reinforcing Steel Institute (CRSI), National Ready Mixed Concrete Association (NRMCA), National Stone, Sand and Gravel Association (NSSGA), Portland Cement Association (PCA), International Safety Equipment Association (ISEA) the US Chamber of Commerce, and National Association of Manufacturers (NAM)

Second Annual RALLY for ROADS Tuesday March, 20th in Washington D.C.

Nation’s largest transportation advocacy rally to support a fully-funded, multi-year transportation bill

The second annual RALLY for ROADS will take place Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 11:00am on the National Mall in Washington D.C. Members of 15 transportation construction industry associations will join together to show their support of a fully-funded, multi-year transportation bill. The rally will showcase the role transportation plays on stimulating the economy, maintaining the nation’s global competitiveness and above all, creating American jobs. The Rally will feature employees from all facets of the road construction industry, including materials providers, road pavers, and equipment manufacturers and dealers.

RALLY for ROADS will be hosted by former Texas representative Max Sandlin. Participating speakers include Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Rep. John Mica (FL), Rep. John Duncan (TN), Rep. Sam Graves (GA), Rep. Nick Rahall (WV), Rep. John Shimkus (IL), Rep. Jason Altmire (PA), Rep. Tom Petri (WI), Rep. Bill Huizenga (MI), and Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR). Speakers will also include representatives from the manufacturing, services, retail, agriculture and natural resources industries.

 What: RALLY for ROADS

When: Tuesday, March 20th at 11:00am (media set up can begin at 10am)

Where: Between 14th Street NW and 15th Street NW on the National Mall

Who:  American Concrete Pavement Association (ACPA), Associated Equipment Distributors (AED), Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), American Highway Users Alliance (AHUA), American Road and Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA), American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), American Traffic Safety Services Association (ATSSA), Concrete Reinforcing Steel Institute (CRSI), National Ready Mixed Concrete Association (NRMCA), National Stone, Sand and Gravel Association (NSSGA), Portland Cement Association (PCA), International Safety Equipment Association (ISEA) National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the US Chamber of Commerce

To RSVP please contact Christin Fernandez 202-789-4365, cfernandez@hdmk.org or visit www.rallyforroads.com