PCA Forecasts a Flat Market in The Northeastern US in 2021

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) released their Spring 2021 Regional Forecast where PCA Senior Regional Economist and Database Manager Joe Chiappe predicted cement consumption would see a 0.1 percent consumption gain in the near term before starting to grow in 2022 and beyond.

The Northeast has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and had some of the most severe responses. Despite this, cement consumption was able to grow 0.6 percent in 2020, largely due to a strong start to the year, and PCA projects a flat growth of 0.1 percent in 2021. The Middle Atlantic was down nearly 3 percent in 2020, however the East North Central and New England were up 1.9 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Following this, 2021 PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption in the Northeast to rise by 1.1 percent in 2022. The increases are evenly spread over the three Census Divisions with the Middle Atlantic moving up 1 percent, East North Central moving up 1.1 percent, and New England moving up 0.6 percent.

The residential market served as the primary growth engine of 2020 in the Northeast and this is expected to continue with a projected 5.7 percent growth rate in 2021. The rate of residential growth will lessen after 2021, but remain positive throughout the forecast horizon. Look for the commercial market to further decline in 2021 and 2022, as there have been many business closures and economic scarring owing to the COVID-19 response. PCA projects that it will begin to recover, as the 2022 forecast is down a slight 0.6 percent before recovery begins in 2023. From 2023 through 2025, the segment is projected to increase momentum each year and grow through 2025. In the Middle Atlantic, public cement consumption is projected to decline 2.2 percent in 2021, on top of a 1.4 percent decline in 2020. The Northeast is expected to lag behind national trends in public cement consumption given state fiscal conditions and the characteristics of the region.

View the full webinar presentation here.

For more information visit www.cement.org/economics.

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The Portland Cement Association (PCA), founded in 1916, is the premier policy, research, education, and market intelligence organization serving America’s cement manufacturers. PCA members represent over 90% of U.S. cement production capacity and have facilities in all 50 states. The association promotes safety, sustainability, and innovation in all aspects of construction, fosters continuous improvement in cement manufacturing and distribution, and generally promotes economic growth and sound infrastructure investment. For more information, visit www.cement.org